USDA lowers global cotton output, pegs year-end stock higher in 2014/15

The latest report “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” of USDA has pegged global output down from its previous month’s estimates. In the same vein, it has upped the year-end stock, implying lower consumption volume in 2014/15. Production is reduced for the US and Greece, with smaller revisions in several other countries.

Global consumption is reduced nearly 1.3 million bales, reflecting lower forecasts for China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey. While the projected world consumption growth rate of 3.3 percent remains above the historical average, current indications are that mills response to this season’s sharply lower cotton prices is lagging previous expectations. World ending stocks are projected at just over 108 million bales.

For US, cotton supply and demand estimates for 2014/15 include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month. Production is reduced 474,000 bales, due mainly to a lower crop estimate for Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.6 million bales, or one-third of total disappearance.

The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at 59 to 64 cents per pound, an increase of 3 cents on the lower end of the range, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices.