Kapas prices have remained firm in the range of Rs.5, 900 -6000 per quintal, over the past few weeks due to lower than expected arrivals of crop and higher estimates of consumption. So far about 208-210 lakh bales or about 61 percent of the total crop has arrived, according to trade sources.
For the next few weeks cotton prices will continue to remain firm with higher estimates of consumption and tight supply at harvest time,
even as farmers continue to hold close to 40 percent of the total crop of 34 lakh bales, according to Acharya NG Ranga Agricutural University (ANGRAU) Market Intelligence Centre Kharif pre-sowing projections for 2017-18.
The Cotton Association of India, on consumption front has estimated for the ongoing year (October to September 2016-17) 295 lakh bales higher than last yearâ€™s 290 lakh bales. Prices are likely to remain firm in near future as demand from yarn makers, millers and export is likely to be higher this year.
Currently cotton mills and ginners from Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Karnataka have been purchasing cotton.
Given this State of affairs, and assuming normal area in kharif 2017-18, an attempt is made to forecast the prices of cotton at harvest period. Towards this end, the modal prices of Warangal were made use of. The results of the analysis in addition to the market survey indicated that the price per quintal would be around Rs. 4600 to Rs. 5000 at harvest.
According to the trade sources cotton prices would remain firm as crop output is likely to be less in Pakistan, Bangladesh and China.
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