Indian cotton production estimated fall to 321 lakh bales

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its March estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2018-9 beginning from 1st October 2018. The CAI has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 at 321 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which is lower by 7 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 328 lakh bales made during last month. The CAI has reduced the crop estimate for Gujarat by 1 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 80,000 bales, Telangana by 4 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 1 lakh bales and Karnataka by 75,000 bales whereas there is marginal increase of 50,000 bales in Tamil Nadu and 5,000 bales in the State of Orissa. The CAI estimates indicate that the crop is likely to be lowest in nearly one decade.

The main reason for reduction in cotton crop during this year is the scarcity of water in some states and the fact that farmers uprooted their cotton plants in about 70-80% area without waiting for 3rd and 4th pickings, says CAI. Total cotton supply projected by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to March 2019 is 290.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which consists of the arrival of 255.83 lakh bales upto 31st March 2019, imports of 6.17 lakh bales upto 31st March 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season at 28 lakh bales.

The CAI has also estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to March 2019 at 158 lakh bales while the export shipment of cotton upto 31st March 2019 has been estimated at 39 lakh bales. Stock at the end of March 2019 is estimated at 93 lakh bales including 45.85 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 47.15 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The CAI has projected yearly Balance Sheet for the cotton season 2018-19 wherein total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto September 2019 has been estimated at 376 lakh bakes of 170 kgs each consisting of the Opening Stock of 28 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season estimated at 321 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 27 lakh bales, which are higher by 12 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.

The CAI has estimated domestic consumption of 316 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated during the last month while the CAI has estimated exports for the season 2018-19 at 47 lakh bales which are lower by 22 lakh bales compared to the export of 69 lakh bales estimated during last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the season is estimated at 13 lakh bales.

Courtesy: Business Standard