Brazilian cotton prices recovering over harvesting delay due to rains

Brazilian cotton prices were recovering in early June driven by increasing need to purchase in the short-term and to the expectation of delay in the availability of cotton in the new season from the 2014/15 crop – due to rains. Purchasers with needs for prompt delivery, such as processors in the northeastern and southern regions, were accepting asking prices of sellers, according to a CEPEA Brazil report.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index, with payment in 8 days, for cotton type 41-4 (including freight to São Paulo city) increased 3.56% in the partial of the month, closing at 2.1019 BRL per pound (0.671 dollar/pound) on June 15. However, if compared to May/15 the price decreased 1.33%.

Cepea calculations showed that in the partial of June export prices to shipment between July-Dec./15 averaged 0.6867 dollar per pound, 1.21% down the average of trades done in May/15. To shipments in the second semester of 2016, the average is at 0.7036 dollar per pound, drop of 2.6% compared to the previous month.

Between June 8 and 12, the export parity calculated by Cepea, FAS (Free Alongside Ship) at Paranaguá port, at 1.9334 BRL (0.621 dollar) per pound, dropped 1.11% compared to last week (from June 1 to 5). In the same period, Cotlook A Index increased 0.21% and dollar decreased 1.28% regarding Real.

In the same period, the import parity released by Conab (National Company for Food Supply), based on Cotlook A Index, CIF São Paulo averaged 2.5293 BRL (0.813 dollar) per pound, moving down 0.72% compared to the first week of June (2.5477 BRL or 0.809 dollar per pound). In this case was considered dollar at 3.1123 BRL.

Conab report released on June 11 upheld the last data that reduced the Brazilian output in 13.1% compared to 2014/15 crop, totaling 1.5 million tons. The cotton acreage is expected decline to just under 9777.7 thousand hectares, decrease by 12.8% from the previous season and also forecast the yield should drop, but by only 0.3%.