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June 2008 - Vol. I, Issue 6
 
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INDIAN YARN EXPORTS RECOVER ON WEAKENING RUPEE
 
YnFx Yarn ExportWatch – March 08

Yarn exports jumped 12% in March 2008 reckoned with the exports in February. Exports totaled over 60 thousand tons during the month as against 50,500 tons in February. March was also favorable on the exchange rate front, as rupee averaged above Rs 40/US$ and reaching the level of Rs 40.50/US$. This improved the overall average unit realization spun yarn by almost 3%. Thus, the export earnings increased 15% during March from its February levels. While exports of viscose yarn, cotton yarn increased significantly during the month, those of 100% polyester and poly-viscose declined sharply. Export of Poly/cotton was stable. (Comparisons are seasonally adjusted).

Among destinations, Bangladesh continues to be the largest importer of Indian yarns during March 2008. It imported about 6,600 tons of spun yarns at an average unit price of US$2.86/kg. Another 5,500 tons of spun yarn was exported to Korea and Turkey each. In terms of export volumes growth, Brazil, South Korea, Peru recorded increases of 40-80% while exports to China and Peru grew 30-40%. In similar comparison, average unit value realization spurted by over 6% in exports to Turkey, Brazil and Belgium. Decline in realization was witnessed in case of exports to Egypt and Peru.

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CHINA COTTON TEXTILES UNDER STIFF PRESSURE ON FIRM COTTON PRICES
 
YnFx PriceWatch – March 08

Crude oil prices in the month moved to record new high of US$120 a barrel and averaged over US$100 a barrel in an uncertain global economic environment. Europe Brent averaged US$103.16 a barrel, higher by 9.5% from the February average. High crude oil prices has impacted demand, at least in the US and was under doubt of the market that this level will be sustained. Far East Asia CFR averaged at US$96 a barrel, CFR terms and WTI spot price was at US$105 a barrel FOB terms. Naphtha prices have also risen to record levels, a consequence of high crude oil prices. Far East Naphtha averaged at US$882 a ton.
CRUDE OIL SPILL OVER SYNTHETIC TEXTILE
 
YnFx Industry Report
Crude oil prices are now sufficiently high for almost two years after remaining abysmally low in the last two decades. Between 1983 and 2002 they averaged US$20 per barrel in nominal terms. This changed in 2004. Between 2004 and 2005 crude oil prices doubled (from US$31 to US$62 per barrel).  The conclusion was that the equilibrium price of oil has risen. Prices further doubled from US$60 in early 2006 to US$120 a barrel by end-April 2008, proving many forecasts wrong. The World Bank in 2007 had projected oil prices to fluctuate around US$50-60 a barrel between 2007 and 2010. The IMF's range was US$60-65 per barrel. Given strong demand, especially by large emerging economies such as China and India, and capacity constraints on the supply side, many now agree that oil prices would hover around this level for the next five years.
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YARN PRICE LIST - 25th APRIL 2008
Export Quotes in US$ / KG, FOB terms
Cotton Shankar 6 MCU-5 Bunny Cotlook A
CURRENT 1 YR AGO CURRENT 1 YR AGO CURRENT 1 YR AGO CURRENT 1 YR AGO
1.58 1.37 1.65 1.48 1.62 1.46 1.69 1.26

Cotton
Yarn
Combed Carded
YARN TYPE CURRENT 1 MO. AGO APR EXP YARN TYPE CURRENT 1 MO. AGO APR EXP
20s CH 2.41 2.40 2.33 20s KH 2.23 2.20 2.27
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IMPACT ON SYNTHETIC TEXTILES
 
Crude oil prices are now sufficiently high for almost two years after remaining abysmally low in the last two decades. Between 1983 and 2002 they averaged US$20 per barrel in nominal terms. This changed in 2004. Between 2004 and 2005 crude oil prices doubled (from US$31 to US$62 per barrel).  The conclusion was that the equilibrium price of oil has risen. Prices further doubled from US$60 in early 2006 to US$120 a barrel by end-April 2008, proving many forecasts wrong. The World Bank in 2007 had projected oil prices to fluctuate around US$50-60 a barrel between 2007 and 2010. The IMF's range was US$60-65 per barrel. Given strong demand, especially by large emerging economies such as China and India, and capacity constraints on the supply side, many now agree that oil prices would hover around this level for the next five years.
 
Oil prices affect, in various degrees, most economies and most commodities. On the supply side, crude oil enters the aggregate production function of most primary commodities through the use of various energy-intensive inputs (e.g., fertilizer, textiles  and fuel) and, often, transportation over long distances, an equally energy demanding process.
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